Next to Tesla, Rivian is the most popular all-electric brand in the United States, which is somewhat remarkable given that up until recently the company has only sold a midsize-ish truck and its SUV twin. There’s a new Rivian on the market, and it looks like people are buying it. One reason? It’s way more affordable.
Lucid, on the other hand, has one expensive sedan and one expensive large SUV. As Morning Dump followers know, Lucid is in a bad way and now it’s seen its sales go in the opposite direction of Rivian as it tries to retool ahead of its own delayed launch for its affordable vehicle. Ford is on the verge of revealing a new affordable car, along with four more affordable cars. What are they?
Nissan has managed to continue to grow in this market, and I do think one of the reasons is that its cars are still relatively affordable. Over-under on how many times I’m going to use that word?
Rivian Sales Were Up 45% In A Difficult Q3
One of my strongly held beliefs about the car market is that affordability is a completely relative phenomena. What is affordable to me is not affordable to you. The average transaction price is around $50,000, but that’s not a number most people likely consider truly attainable. The ‘Keating Line’ is around $35,000, and I think that feels like a better number, but doesn’t cover a lot of people.
A key way that affordability is relative is, of course, what kind of vehicle you’re getting. While $35,000 is a lot to pay for a subcompact crossover like an HR-V, it’s about average for a compact one like the CR-V, and a great deal for a midsize SUV like the Honda Pilot.
The Rivian R2 looks like a winner. It’s an attractive vehicle from a well-liked brand with a high-level of capability. In theory, it’ll cost under $50,000, though I think most people will end up with an R2 that’s closer to $60,000. Even on the high end this is still about $20,000-$30,000 less than a price for the larger R1 or R1S.
You can get a lot of EVs for that price, but you can’t get a Rivian for that price, and the Rivian name carries a lot of weight. For that reason, I’m not surprised that in its first full quarter Rivian posted deliveries (sales, basically) of 19,248 vehicles. The company doesn’t break down sales, but that increase is a 45% over Q3 2025 (when people were rushing to lease cars before the expiration of the tax credit).
As TechCrunch points out, if Rivian can hit its goal of selling 20-25,000 R2s before the end of this year it’ll make it the second fastest selling EV of all time (after the Model Y). This goes a little further to answering my question from last October, which is: Can Rivian survive long enough to deliver the car we all want?
The car many people want is the R2. The car I want is the Rivian R3, which is a little smaller and a little cheaper. The company still has to report its financials, and it’s possible that it cost too much to deliver these cars. Investors are certainly hoping that higher-than-expected sales might be pointing towards lower-than-expected losses.
It could be worse, as Rivian is not Lucid.
Lucid Production Dropped, But It’s All Part Of The Plan
Lucid has a new CEO and is trying to save cash and reset after a series of setbacks. I remain skeptical about the company, which earlier this year announced it was delaying its midsize crossover.
The Saudi-backed automaker put out a statement saying its production was down a little bit, as was always the plan:
Lucid produced 2,954 vehicles and delivered 3,806 vehicles during the third quarter of 2026.1 Deliveries exceeded production as the company continued to execute its planned inventory reduction, converting existing vehicle inventory into customer deliveries as part of the previously announced operating reset targeting $1.4 billion of cash flow improvements in 2026. Demand for the Lucid Gravity continued to regain momentum.
As part of its operating reset, Lucid continued to align production with near-term demand. Production declined sequentially, consistent with the previously announced elimination of a second shift at AMP-1 in June, while deliveries were above production as the company reduced existing vehicle inventory.
Rightsizing production to demand in the near-term is logical, but Lucid has to eventually find a way to create more demand if it wants to continue to exist. Rivian is showing that’s possible.
What Are The Five Affordable Vehicles Ford Is Building?
Ford CEO Jim Farley talked to NBC News and said the important things one needs to say about building affordable vehicles.
“People are squeezed,” Jim Farley told NBC News in an interview. “It’s our responsibility — Ford, the Model T — to bring more affordable vehicles to the U.S.”
He then said that the company was on the verge of producing five affordable vehicles (NBC News says “five more,” though I thought I heard five). What are these vehicles?
There’s the UEV platform, which will produce the Ford Fathom EV pickup and two more affordable vehicles. That is three. It’s rumored that the Escape is going to come back as a more OG Escape-sized, hybrid-only crossover. That’s four. What’s the fifth?
Nissan Hits Its 19th Month Of Year-Over-Year Growth
Nissan has a new CEO, new energy, and, eventually, some new product. In the meantime, the brand definitely found the bottom a couple of years ago and by merely having a mix of affordable cars has hit its 19th month of consecutive sales wins and its 13th month as the fasting growing brand in the United States.
It’s also not just the company dumping Rogues on rental fleets, as the company says fleet volume is down:
The brand’s retail sales increased 6.8% during the quarter, driven by strong demand for its core truck and SUV lineup. Frontier remained the fastest-growing truck in the U.S., with retail sales up 44% year over year. Rogue retail sales rose 41%, and Armada retail sales increased 42%, reflecting strong customer demand across the portfolio. Pathfinder cumulative retail sales delivered its second-best third-quarter retail sales performance ever.
Nissan continued executing its strategic focus on retail sales, prioritizing customer demand through its dealer network while reducing rental fleet volume. As a result, rental fleet sales declined 45% year-over-year during the quarter and 33% year-to-date. At the same time, Nissan recorded the largest increase in customer loyalty among major automakers and improved inventory efficiency, reinforcing the company’s disciplined approach to supporting long-term dealer profitability and sustainable growth.
Note, the much better (on paper) new Rogue wasn’t even out yet.
What I’m Listening To While Writing TMD
Is it bad to admit that I first heard “Standing Outside A Broken Phonebooth With Money In My Hand” by Primitive Radio Gods I heard the BB King sample as I’ve been down Hardy, baby as in the oft-crowded Hardy Toll Road in Houston and not I’ve been downhearted, babe as King actually sings?
The Big Question
What’s the affordable vehicle Ford needs to build? What’s the fifth (or sixth) vehicle Farley is talking about?
Top photo: Rivian
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