It wouldn’t be the end of the year without the sometimes-automaker known as Tesla doing something strategically strange. If you’re going to attempt an out-of-the-ordinary maneuver, this is the week to do it, as our own traffic indicates that many of you are not yet back at the office.
There are just two Morning Dumps left in the year, which means there are two more days of shenanigans. Up first is Tesla, which put out its own public consensus estimate for what the market predicts the company will deliver in Q4. That’s unusual, especially considering the number.
Also unusual is the alleged behavior of a Kia-Mitsubishi dealer in Iowa, with Mitsubishi claiming it’s not really acting like a Mitsubishi dealer. Who owns Bugatti? It’s sort of Porsche, therefore kinda Volkswagen, definitely Rimac. The future of that company may involve removing the Porsche part of the equation.
Do you like The Autopian?! You’re not alone! The site has been recognized by my own local paper.
Tesla Reports A Low Estimate Of Q4 Deliveries
Above is a screenshot from the Tesla Investor Relations page, which is a page I visit fairly regularly. This is where Tesla posts information relevant to shareholders, including its quarterly 10-Q and annual 10-K filings. This morning, there was a new column marked “consensus.” Weird! You’ll notice that Tesla has never publicly listed this number before.
If you go to that page, you’ll see a “company-compiled delivery consensus of sell-side analysts.” This means that Tesla chose the sell-side analysts, which means that it could basically create whatever number it wanted.
In this compilation of analysis, Tesla will deliver about 422,850 vehicles in Q4, which is down a lot from Q3, and would set the company up for its second annual drop in deliveries, before magically exploding to more than 3 million global deliveries in 2029, led by a huge increase in non Model 3/Y sales (CyberCab, I guess?)
What’s important to point out here, as Bloomberg does, is that this number seems low:
By Tesla’s count, analysts on average expect the company to deliver 422,850 cars in the fourth quarter, down 15% from a year earlier. That compares with a Bloomberg-compiled average of 445,061 vehicles, a 10% drop.
Tesla does regularly compile these estimates, but it usually only shares them with a small group of analysts and major investors. Why go public? Electrek, the EV site that once championed Tesla and now treats it skeptically, has a theory:
By releasing its own, lower consensus publicly, Tesla appears to be attempting to lower expectations ahead of the official delivery and production report, which is expected in the first few days of January. If the “whisper numbers” on the street are 440k and Tesla delivers 425k, the stock would typically take a hit. By anchoring expectations to ~420k now, a 425k result might be spun as a “beat.”
This is like when my wife asks me how many loads of laundry I think I can do on a Sunday, and I say “two” so that I can beat estimates by doing three loads.
I’m not sure that I buy the argument that this will have any predictable impact on Tesla’s stock price because Tesla’s stock price has a flubber-like ability to react in exaggerated and counter-intuitive ways.
Mitsubishi Upset Its Dealer Isn’t Even Pretending To Be A Mitsubishi Dealer
Kia has had an incredible run of quarters, which has likely been good news for its dealers. While Mitsubishi’s slate of affordable vehicles has done ok in this market, the slim margins mean that, given the choice, most dealers would rather represent the former.
Edwards Auto Group in Council Bluffs, Iowa, gets the benefit of hosting both brands, although Mitsubishi, in a recent lawsuit, claims that Edwards Mitsubishi isn’t exactly representing the Japanese automaker as well as it should.
Edwards wouldn’t talk to Automotive News, but the publication has some details from the lawsuit:
In its 2022 renewal, Mitsubishi authorized Edwards to combine its Mitsubishi and Kia service departments in a single facility, according to the complaint, but required a physically separate Mitsubishi showroom.
However, a site visit in August revealed the Mitsubishi showroom was unstaffed and was being used for storage and as a “coordination point” for porters who were cleaning and prepping Kia vehicles, the complaint said.
[…]
On Edwards’ lot, Mitsubishi vehicles are “limited in number and intermingled with a significantly larger inventory of Kia vehicles, making it difficult for consumers to identify the Mitsubishi brand presence,” it said in the complaint. “Prospective Mitsubishi buyers who visit Edwards Mitsubishi during purported open hours will find that the dealership appears closed and are likely to be confused or mistakenly believe the Mitsubishi dealership is no longer in business.”
Hmm… let’s take a look at what the Mitsubishi dealer looks like based on a photo posted by the dealership:
Look at that Pepsi machine! Seems like a nice place to me.
Someone Wants To Buy Porsche AG’s Share Of Bugatti
The intermingling of Porsche and Volkswagen is always a little confusing, but Porsche AG is the company that owns Porsche and is itself mostly owned by Volkswagen AG, itself about a third-owned by Porsche SE.
To make it even more exciting, Porsche/VW got super pumped about electric automaker/tech company Rimac Group a few years back and, through various transactions, ended up creating the combined Bugatti Rimac.
How is it going? Ehhh… there have been some issues, and it’s been suspected that Porsche might sell its shares in Bugatti Rimac. Now, according to Bloomberg, there’s a potential buyer:
HOF Capital, the fund co-founded by a scion of Egypt’s billionaire Sawiris family, and BlueFive Capital are in talks to acquire Porsche AG’s stake in the venture that owns the Bugatti supercar brand, people with knowledge of the matter said.
The investors are in discussions to team up on a possible deal to buy Porsche’s stake in Bugatti Rimac, a joint venture between the German sport-car maker and Croatia’s Rimac Group, the people said. The potential transaction would also involve investors including HOF Capital buying Porsche’s stake in Rimac Group itself, the people said.
Just because there are buyers doesn’t mean that Porsche AG/SE will sell.
Small New York Publication Recognizes The Greatness Of Autopian
Oh, what’s this? Is The Autopian the only automotive website to be recognized by The New York Times as having one of the best sentences of the year? To be fair, Dan Neil at The Wall Street Journal was also recognized, although that’s not purely an automotive publication.
As Frank Bruni notes:
What a challenging year. Many of us struggle to make sense of what’s happening in America. We cope in different ways. Some spend more time in nature. Others retreat into books or the gym.
Still others turn to their keyboards, distilling this unruly world into words.
Obviously, I’m a modest, private person, and so I’m only sharing this here and via various text messages, Instagram, Facebook, Discord, and LinkedIn. Here’s the sentence, if you were curious:
You don’t buy a Subaru so much as you ascend into your final form as an outdoorsy Subaru owner when a ray of light beams down from the nearest REI, and all your clothes vanish from your body and are replaced by Patagonia.
Neat! Honestly, I was afraid that I’d lifted the formula from this sentence from a friend’s podcast, and so I emailed him to ask if that was the case. To his memory, he didn’t use this formula, but a part of me is sure I adapted it from somewhere. Good writers borrow, great ones steal, et cetera et cetera.
Also, thanks to Carol from Granville for nominating us! In honor of this, you can use the code “frankbruni” (or click this link) to get $10 off any annual plan for the rest of the year. Find out more about membership here.
What I’m Listening To While Writing TMD
Chappel Roan was not famous seven years ago, nor as amusingly flamboyant as she is now. Still, she was already one hell of a songwriter. Enjoy “School Nights.”
The Big Question
Which automaker did it best in 2025? It was a challenging year, but some automakers rose to the occasion while others sank.
Top photo: Tesla
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